Environmental pressure linked to conflict risk
New global study finds population pressure on nature is fuelling violence. Environmental pressure is a stronger predictor of violent internal conflict than a country’s political regime or income, according to a pioneering. This is shown in a new study conducted by researchers at Linnaeus University.
The research examined the occurrence and intensity of conflict across 28 years of data covering 181 countries, while controlling for the effects of national socio-economic and political conditions that can exacerbate conflict.
“The study found that countries where population pressures exceed the natural capacity of land and ecosystems are significantly more likely to experience deadly internal conflicts, and to suffer higher numbers of casualties when violence does occur,” says Elizaveta Kopacheva, researcher at Linnaeus University, Sweden.
Researchers used a measure called Population Biodensity, a novel concept co-developed by one of the authors of the study, which measures how many people live in an area compared with how much nature that area has to support them. It compares the human population to the land’s biocapacity, a measure developed by the organisation Global Footprint Network of how much food, energy and other ecological services local ecosystems can provide.
Unlike traditional population density measures, Population Biodensity reflects the real ecological pressure people place on the environment, rather than simply how crowded an area is.
The study found that environmental pressure is linked to higher levels of violent internal conflicts in countries around the world. Even after accounting for inequality, cultural diversity, immigration, and property rights, Population Biodensity remained a significant predictor of both conflict presence and intensity, meaning that countries with higher levels of environmental stress are more likely to experience more episodes of internal conflict and, importantly, more deadly ones.
“Environmental pressure was also found to be the single strongest factor linked to how deadly those conflicts become. Among countries already affected by conflict, higher Population Biodensity was associated with significantly higher numbers of deaths, outweighing the influence of income or political regime. The authors believe this to be the first study to demonstrate this relationship,” says Elizaveta Kopacheva, researcher at Linnaeus University, Sweden.
Democracies were far less likely to experience violent internal conflict than autocratic regimes. However, even in democratic states, rising environmental pressure increased conflict risk, underlining the importance of ecological sustainability alongside good governance.
“Our research clarifies the importance that population's pressure on environmental resources has for both the emergence and the intensity of conflicts. It demonstrates that preserving a well‑functioning, healthy natural environment is a fundamental precondition for peace and societal prosperity,” says Professor Giangacomo Bravo.
Read more